26Q4: The Barbell Strategy
A fourth-quarter framework for a barbell portfolio as inflation, real rates and AI monetization pull in different directions.
Insights
→
When Stock–Bond Negative Correlation Ends
How to rebuild portfolios around growth, inflation, rates, credit and liquidity after stock–bond correlation turns positive.
Attention, Belief and Karma: How We Shape Ourselves in the AI Era
How attention enters the cognitive system and, through belief, action and feedback, shapes capability and character over time.
AI Will Not Bring Equality
How AI reshapes human value and makes problem definition, attention, data and skills more important factors of production.
The Mystery of Returns: Short-Term Luck, Long-Term Skill
Why short-term returns are weak evidence of skill, and how process, constraints and time reveal what can be repeated.
2025 Annual Notes: Make Volatility Your Friend in 2026
A year-end research note on macro hedging, volatility, execution and the profitability challenge facing Chinese companies.
2025 Annual Notes: The Commodity Bull Market Takes Off
A framework for precious metals, industrial metals and energy across demand, supply, geopolitics and capital flows.
2025 Annual Notes: What Changes, What Does Not
A framework for 2026 allocation, AI, gold, market structure and macro hedging.
When the Yen Carry Trade Unwinds
How yen funding, higher Japanese yields and a currency reversal can transmit a liquidity shock into dollar assets.
401(k): Did American Pensions Create a 40-Year Bull Market?
How automatic saving, tax incentives and passive investment turned American wages into a persistent equity bid.
Gold's Return to Power
How real rates, official reserves and retail hedging shape gold's role as a monetary anchor.
The Dollar at Dusk II: American Exceptionalism and Treasuries
A review of American exceptionalism, international investment positions and the Treasury market that anchors the dollar system.
The Dollar at Dusk I: The Foundations of Hegemony
A structural account of the four anchors supporting the dollar system: dollar assets, trade, commodities and geopolitics.